Useful Tips for Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trade

When applying fundamental analysis to trading forex, it is advisable to look at several countries, because the strong political and/or economic connections maintained between two or more countries will be reflected in their currency value fluctuations.

Other useful tips when embarking upon fundamental analysis as you trade forex include:

  • Economic calendar: pay attention to the where and when. Due to the fact that the value of a currency responds quickly to the release of certain economic information, it is imperative to keep a close watch on currency price trends whenever new information is publicised.
  • Economic indicators: know what economic indicators are capturing the market’s attention. These indicators serve as catalysts for the largest price and volume movements. For example, when the British pound sterling is weakened, one of the most watched indicators becomes inflation.
  • Market expectations: do not just watch the data; know what market expectations develop from it and then watch closely to see whether or not those expectations are met. This serves as a better indicator of trends than just watching the data itself. From time to time, there is a major gap between what is expected and what actually occurs; therefore you need to remain aware of the possibilities.

Fundamental analysis is highly effective in helping to predict overall market behaviour and determining a country’s economic health trends, but where fundamental analysis falls short is in the short-term. This type of analysis is simply not capable of accounting for short-term fluctuations. It is important to use other techniques in conjunction with fundamental analysis and so this is where the technical analysis comes in.

Trade Forex: Technical Analysis

While fundamental analysis uses economic indicators to help determine long-term trends, technical analysis when trading forex is used to identify trends as they develop. This allows the trader to capitalise on the trend until it reverses direction.

If you are planning to trade forex, then you should be aware that trends are what forex trading is all about. In forex trading, you can work both sides of the market; technical analysis helps you predict which side to work when.

A basic concept within forex technical analysis is the idea of resistance and support. Resistance is when a price has risen to a level that it finds difficult to surpass. Resistance levels are used to help determine when to sell; ideally, you want to sell as close to that level as possible. Unfortunately, resistance levels are subjective and can therefore be difficult to determine exactly where to draw the line.

Support, of course, is the opposite of resistance. This is the line where a price had dropped to the bottom and it becomes difficult for it to drop any further. This is the line where you want to buy. As with resistance levels, support levels are also subjective, but that does not mean they are not useful.

Although definitive resistance and support levels are difficult to ascertain, traders still benefit from the concepts, using the ranges as their guides to when to buy and/or sell – adopting a long or short market position, depending upon the situation and goal.

Trade Forex: Understanding Quotes

In forex trading, currency is always quoted in pairs, with one pair creating one product. The formula is generally XXX/YYY, with XXX being the base currency and the YYY being the ‘quote’ or counter currency.

In currency bids and quotes, an international ISO 4217 three letter currency code is used; for example, the US dollar is shown as USD while the Japanese yen appears as JPY.

The base currency quoted in forex will always have a value equalling one (1) while the counter currency will reflect the units it would take to create one in base currency. For example, the numbers provided for EUR/GBP will represent one euro and the number of British pounds it takes to make one euro – i.e. the exchange rate.

While forex quotes can come in a single quote number, most of the time they are displayed in pairs according to bid price and ask price. When you trade forex, the bid price is the price at which you will sell the base currency, while the ask price is the price at which you will be buying. The difference between the two numbers is the spread.

A pip is the smallest value within a quote, which is the last decimal. For example, if the exchange rate for GBP/USD goes from 1.618 to 1.619, that change equals one pip. In the case of USD/JPY, the change from 120.75 to 120.80 would represent five pips. Pips are always determined by the last decimal place, no matter how long the quoted number.

Trade Forex: Range Trading and Momentum Markets

Range trading is a part of the technical analysis process of forex trading. Using resistance and support levels, traders buy and sell within these respective ranges, adopting a long market position (support range) or short market position (resistance range), depending upon the situation.

While range trading can reap profit, it tends not to be extraordinarily so. The reason is because the market can suddenly spike or crash if or when it breaks the level. As a result, traders find themselves subject to major losses, with the price suddenly raising or falling without ample warning.

An alternative to range trading is trading beyond the resistance and support range, or, in other words, trading with the anticipation that the price will break their resistance/support thresholds. This is called playing the momentum and is based on the principle that, with the level breached, the market will gain incentive, thus allowing the trader to profit from the situation.

As with fundamental analysis, using technical analysis and relying on range trading and/or momentum alone is an unsafe practice. There are a lot of variables that technical analysis does not take into account: unexpected things like natural disasters, a change in government and/or a country’s leadership, and even investor mood. If your intent is to trade forex successfully either part-time or full-time, it is wise to use a combination of technical analysis and fundamental analysis as part of your investment strategy.

Trade Forex: Fundamental Analysis

As with any type of trading, successful forex trade requires the ability to predict movement and take advantage of it. To do this, a trade will rely on analysis – either fundamental or technical – to help him or her predict which way the move will go.

With fundamental analysis, the trader looks at the economic factors that can affect the currency exchange rate. This includes things like political news, recent social events, and various economic indicators. It is these aspects that drive the supply and demand of currency. For instance, the recent disasters in Japan had an effect on the strength of the yen while the death of Bin Laden had an effect on US currency.

Through fundamental analysis, a trade will dissect a country’s economic situation at a macro level in order to better understand and predict the trends. Key things looked at when you trade forex include:

Interest Rates

Each day, the Central Bank of a country will determine the overnight lending rate, using the interest rate as a method of expanding or contracting the money supply. Usually, a lower interest rate will cause a currency to depreciate, while higher interest rates will cause a currency’s value to rise.

Unemployment

Unemployment is a key indicator in how a country is doing economically. High unemployment rates lead to the lowering of a country’s currency value.

Fundamental analysis is best used to determine long-term trends; it does not prove itself very useful as a day trading tool. By concentrating on the longer-term factors that affect a country’s economic health, forex traders are able to determine which way a currency pair will move over time.

Trade Forex Currency: USD and GBP

There are seven primary currencies you may deal with if you trade forex: this includes the British pound sterling, the euro, the Japanese yen, United States dollar, the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar, and the Canadian dollar. Of these, the United States dollar is involved in over 80% of the trades.

USD – United States Dollar

The symbol for the US dollar is $ while the value is determined by the decimal system, with one dollar ($1) equalling 100 cents (100¢). Slang terms for the US dollar include “buck” and “bill”. Values less than one dollar are issued as US coins while those of one dollar and above are most typically issued as Federal Reserve notes. There are one dollar coins in current circulation, although they are not as common as the paper dollar.

GBP – British Pound Sterling

The pound sterling is symbolised by £, with one pound sterling equalling 100 pence. While the official term is pound sterling or sterling (when referring to the currency as a whole), the ‘sterling’ is typically dropped in the British spoken language when referring to specific units of currency.

The term “pound sterling” comes from the origin of the currency, which is one pound tower weight of sterling silver. The pound sign can be displayed in two ways: £ or ₤, although the latter is typically only seen in handwritten documents. The correct ISO 4217 code is GBP, however, on occasion, you may see the abbreviation UKP. Since stocks are often traded using pence, the abbreviations GBX or GBP may also be used.

Trade Forex Currency: Knowing the Currency Code

When starting out with trading forex, it is a good idea to begin with the primary seven: US dollar, British pound, euro, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc. It is also recommended that, if you are living in one of the countries represented in the primary seven, you focus on your own country’s currency, because you will be in a better position to judge its value on the market.

When you trade forex, currency will always be shown as three letters, as set according to ISO 4217. The first two letters serve as country identifiers, while the third letter identifies the currency. The major seven are symbolised as follows:

  • USD – United States dollar (trade nickname: buck)
  • AUD – Australian dollar (trade nickname: aussie)
  • CAD – Canadian dollar (trade nickname: loonie)
  • EUR – Euro Zone euro (trade nickname: fibre)
  • JPY – Japanese yen (trade nickname: yen)
  • GPB – British pound sterling (trade nickname: cable)
  • CHF – Swiss franc (trade nickname: swissy)

In addition to their use in forex trading, ISO currency codes are also used throughout global banking and business. You may even come across ISO currency codes on items like international flight and train tickets, where they are used instead of symbols in an effort to remove uncertainty around a ticket’s purchase price.

Along with their currency letter codes, ISO 4217 also issues numeric codes associated with each currency. A visit to the official ISO 4217 standard website will provide general information on ISO standards, as well as a list of abbreviations and codes for all country currencies.

Trade Forex Currency: EUR and JPY

If you decide to try your hand at trading forex, you will need to become familiar with currencies other than your own. The seven primary currencies in forex trade include the United States dollar, the euro, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, the British pound sterling, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. While the US dollar and GB pound are two of the most significant, especially for British traders, other popular currencies to trade forex with include the euro and the Japanese yen.

EUR – Euro

The euro (currency sign €) is the official currency of the “Euro Zone”, which consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Estonia, Finland, France, Republic of Ireland, Luxembourg, Italy, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Several small European states have also adopted the euro, including Monaco, San Marino, Andorra, Montenegro, Kosovo, and the Vatican.

While all members of the European Union are eligible to join in using the euro if they comply with certain requirements, not all members have chosen to do so. Notable exceptions include the United Kingdom (including Northern Ireland), Denmark and Sweden.

JPY – Japanese Yen

The yen is the currency of Japan, symbolised by ¥, although in Japan it is sometimes notated by the kanji 円). In forex trading, the yen is popular as a reserve currency, falling after the US dollar, pound sterling, and euro. Typically, when working with large amounts of yen, the numbers are counted in multiples of 10,000 (much like the USD is often counted in 100s or 1,000s).

Three Types of Forex Traders

Everyone has their own niche or style of doing things that sets them apart from others. In addition, while no one style works perfectly for everyone, knowing what style works best for you is key to becoming a successful forex trader. That being said, it is common knowledge that 95% of forex traders do not reach the levels they aspire to, or fail to succeed full stop.

Basically, there are three types of forex traders:

Casino Traders (Gamblers)

These are people who trade forex using instinct as their primary weapon. Casino traders are gamblers; they go with their gut. These types of people rarely succeed over the long run, simply because they are gambling on a trend which they do not really understand. Little effort is put into gaining insight and knowledge on how forex trading works.

Bookworm Traders

A bookworm trader is someone who scours the internet for free information. Gaining knowledge this way can take time, but while bookworm traders may eventually succeed to desired levels, it takes a long time before they have the confidence to actually trade.

Educated Traders

Before investing in a forex account, educated traders will take the time to get a forex education. They learn the market, understand the tools, educate themselves in the trade, and then open a demo account and practice. Only then, when they feel ready, do they invest.

Anyone can succeed in the forex trade, but you should recognise that many will not. Gaining knowledge before you begin is the one sure way to put the odds of success in your favour.

More FAQs Regarding Forex Trade

Here are the answers for some of the most popular questions in “Frequently Asked Questions Regarding Forex Trade”:

Q: How does forex trading match up with stocks and mutual fund trading?
A: Forex trading and conventional stock/fund trading is completely different. If you intend to trade forex, while you will be looking at long-term trends, your focus will probably be on trying to predict movement in the short term. Most traders use a day trading style – buying and selling on the same day.

Q: Who are the major players in the currency trade?
A: According to the Wall Street Journal Europe, 73 per cent of trade volume is covered by Deutsche Bank, followed by UBS, Citi Group, HSBC, Barclays, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, ABN Amro, and Morgan Stanley.

Forex trading begins each day when financial centres in Sydney begin their day, moving around the globe until it reaches New York. Trading is a 24/7 activity; traders can respond to events regardless of their location and time zone.

Q: What do I need to get started?
A: It does not take much to get started, as you will need a funded forex account and a computer with an internet connection. It is recommended that beginners start off with a demo account. This allows you to test your skills using play money. Most forex brokers offer demo accounts for free. Before you trade forex, you can minimise the risk by receiving a proper forex education, complete with the knowledge of trading tools.